Unplanned urban expansion poses significant challenges to sustainable territorial development in intermediate cities. This study analyzes the dynamics of urban expansion and land use change in the city of Cajamarca (Peru) during the period 1986−2040, integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, Google Earth Engine (GEE) and CA-Markov prediction models. Landsat satellite images from 1986, 2004 and 2022, classified by Random Forest (RF), were used to generate thematic maps and evaluate their accuracy. Subsequently, a spatial simulation model was implemented to project urban expansion to 2040. The results indicate an increase in the urban area from 789.68 hectares to 5,768.19 hectares, while forests and crops also changed. The driving factors for this expansion include rural-urban migration, the availability of services, and real estate development. Projections highlight growth toward the east, southeast, and south of the city. This approach provides strategic inputs for sustainable urban planning and effective land management in transforming Andean cities.