The Belt and Road Initiative: Impacts on Agricultural Trade Efficiency in Southeast Asia—Evidence from Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, is a transformative global strategy designed to enhance trade connectivity and economic integration across Asia, Europe, and Africa. Through large-scale investments in railways, roads, ports, and multimodal logistics systems, the BRI aims to address infrastructure deficits that constrain cross-border trade. Southeast Asia, strategically located as both a logistics corridor and a vital source of agricultural products, has become a key focus area for BRI infrastructure development [1, 2].

Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Southeast Asia’s economy, accounting for substantial shares of GDP, employment, and exports across the region. However, the sector’s growth and global competitiveness have been hindered by long-standing challenges in logistics and transport, such as high freight costs, inefficient cross-border processes, and limited cold-chain capacity [3, 4]. Smallholder farmers—who form the majority of agricultural producers—are disproportionately affected by these inefficiencies, with inadequate rural connectivity limiting their ability to access international markets [5, 6].

Previous studies have examined the BRI’s role in improving infrastructure connectivity and facilitating trade at a broad regional level [7-9]. While some research has focused on trade volume, macroeconomic outcomes, or geopolitical implications, relatively few studies have assessed how BRI-funded infrastructure influences agricultural trade efficiency specifically, especially from an operational and microeconomic standpoint [10-12]. Moreover, many analyses treat Southeast Asia as a monolithic region, overlooking the diversity in trade capacity, agricultural systems, and institutional frameworks between countries.

This study aims to bridge this gap by offering a comparative, country-level assessment of how BRI-related infrastructure, particularly railway investments, impacts agricultural trade efficiency in Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with qualitative insights from field interviews and reports, we examine concrete performance indicators such as transport costs, transit time reductions, and export competitiveness of perishable goods. Projects like the China-Laos Railway demonstrate substantial reductions in freight costs (up to 50%) and increased delivery speed for tropical exports, making them valuable case studies of transformative logistics [13-15].

The novelty of this research lies in its focus on sector-specific trade impacts, its integration of empirical data from both infrastructure performance and stakeholder experience, and its policy-oriented analysis. Furthermore, it contributes to academic and policy debates by identifying barriers still faced by smallholders and proposing strategies, such as rural logistics investments and sustainable trade practices, to maximize the inclusive and resilient benefits of BRI [16-18]. Ultimately, this study provides a timely and nuanced evaluation of how infrastructure can serve as a lever for agricultural development, and how emerging connectivity projects should be designed to support sustainability, equity, and economic integration in Southeast Asia.

Having reviewed the theoretical and empirical landscape on trade and infrastructure connectivity, the following section outlines the research design and methodology used to examine the impact of the BRI on agricultural trade performance.

The BRI has emerged as a transformative strategy to address global infrastructure deficits and enhance trade integration. By investing in large-scale transport projects, including railways, ports, and highways, the BRI facilitates the seamless movement of goods across borders. Southeast Asia, with its strategic position in global trade, has become a focal point for BRI investments [17, 19].

Recent studies underscore the potential of BRI-funded infrastructure, such as the China-Laos Railway, to lower transport costs by 30–50% and reduce transit times for agricultural products by half [15, 20]. This has been particularly impactful for time-sensitive goods like tropical fruits and vegetables, where speed and cost efficiency are critical to maintaining quality and market competitiveness. However, challenges such as regulatory misalignment and uneven accessibility for rural areas persist, limiting the full realization of BRI’s benefits [6, 21, 22]. This study addresses the gap by focusing on agricultural trade—specifically, how improved connectivity impacts smallholder farmers and rural exporters.

Efficient logistics networks are essential for the success of agricultural trade, particularly in Southeast Asia, where agriculture contributes significantly to GDP and employment [23, 24]. Studies indicate that improved transport infrastructure can reduce post-harvest losses, enhance market access, and increase trade competitiveness [5, 25]. For example, the integration of multimodal transport systems under the BRI has significantly reduced logistics barriers in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), benefiting exporters and producers alike [26].

Nonetheless, rural producers, especially smallholder farmers, often face challenges accessing major transport hubs. Poor rural roads, high logistics fees, and limited cold-chain infrastructure hinder their ability to fully leverage BRI investment [27-29]. Our research explores these disparities directly by analyzing both quantitative trade outcomes and qualitative data from smallholders affected by BRI projects.

While BRI projects have improved trade efficiency, we have explored additional environmental assessments to provide insights into ensuring sustainable development. For example, large-scale infrastructure development has led to deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, and the displacement of local communities [24, 30-32]. To address these concerns, recent research has emphasized the importance of adopting green logistics practices and climate-smart agricultural supply chains [33].

The integration of digital technologies, such as AI-powered logistics management systems and blockchain for supply chain transparency, has been identified as a key solution for improving both efficiency and sustainability [24, 31]. For instance, smart logistics hubs in Lao PDR and Thailand have reduced emissions while enhancing operational efficiency [6].

By triangulating field interviews with trade and policy data, this research shows how regulatory bottlenecks disproportionately impact small-scale agricultural exporters. Inconsistent customs procedures, differing track gauges, and varying trade policies across ASEAN countries create logistical bottlenecks [4, 34]. Harmonizing these regulations is essential for maximizing the potential of BRI infrastructure.

Furthermore, regional cooperation mechanisms, such as the Mekong-Lancang Cooperation Framework, play a crucial role in aligning trade and transport policies, facilitating cross-border trade, and enhancing regional connectivity [35].

The existing literature extensively examines the macroeconomic impacts of the BRI, particularly in the context of trade facilitation and infrastructure development. However, critical research gaps remain regarding its effects on agricultural trade efficiency. While many studies explore the BRI’s influence on trade, few provide a sector-specific analysis of agriculture, despite its heavy reliance on efficient logistics and infrastructure. Agriculture is a cornerstone of Southeast Asia’s economy, yet the extent to which BRI-funded projects enhance or hinder agricultural trade efficiency remains insufficiently explored [25, 36-40]. There is also a lack of research on the inclusivity of BRI infrastructure, particularly regarding its accessibility for rural and smallholder farmers. While large agribusinesses may readily integrate into improved transport networks, smallholder farmers often face barriers such as inadequate feeder roads, high logistics costs, and insufficient access to cold-chain facilities, limiting their ability to benefit from these developments [23, 24, 31, 35, 41-44]. Additionally, concerns about the long-term sustainability of BRI projects persist, particularly regarding their environmental and social trade-offs. Issues such as deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, and the displacement of local communities remain underexamined, raising questions about the balance between economic growth and environmental responsibility [9, 45-49]. Adding to these gaps, there is limited access to resources, a lack of comprehensive surveys of farmers and industry experts, and a shortage of empirical studies measuring the actual benefits and challenges faced by stakeholders in the region [27, 34]. Addressing these gaps requires a detailed evaluation of how BRI-funded infrastructure impacts agricultural trade efficiency, a closer examination of its inclusivity for smallholder farmers, and a deeper investigation into its long-term sustainability implications in Southeast Asia.

The selected projects—the China-Laos Railway, Malaysia’s ECRL, and the Pan-Asia Railway Network—were chosen due to their strategic importance in connecting agricultural production zones with major export markets. These projects represent different geographic scopes, infrastructure types, and levels of maturity, providing a comprehensive view of BRI’s varied impacts across Southeast Asia.

This study adopts a mixed-methods approach to evaluate the impact of the BRI-funded transport infrastructure on agricultural trade efficiency in Southeast Asia. By integrating quantitative data analysis with qualitative insights, the research provides a comprehensive understanding of measurable outcomes such as transport costs, transit times, and export volumes, while also exploring stakeholders’ experiences and challenges.

Three key BRI-funded transport projects were selected for case study analysis:

• China-Laos Railway – Connecting Laos to Chinese markets.

• East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) – Enhancing Malaysia’s agricultural export capacity.

• Pan-Asia Railway Network – Facilitating cross-border trade among ASEAN countries.

This research enables a detailed examination of project-specific impacts on agricultural trade efficiency while allowing cross-case comparisons to identify common trends and challenges.

To ensure the relevance and depth of the analysis, a purposive sampling strategy was adopted. The selection of case studies—the China-Laos Railway, Malaysia’s ECRL, and the Pan-Asia Railway Network—was based on three main criteria: (1) the infrastructure project's direct connection to agricultural production zones and export corridors, (2) availability of reliable trade and logistics data over a multi-year period (2015–2023), and (3) geographical diversity to reflect varying levels of infrastructure maturity across Southeast Asia.

For the qualitative component, interview participants were also purposively selected to represent diverse perspectives in the agricultural trade supply chain. Criteria for inclusion included: active involvement in cross-border agricultural trade, direct use or experience with BRI-funded infrastructure, and geographical representation across Laos, Malaysia, and Thailand. Expert consultations from Vietnam, Cambodia, and China were additionally conducted to gather regional perspectives, although these were not used in the final coding structure.